Prospects for the LibDems

"Macbeth: They have tied me to a stake: I cannot fly,
But, bear-like, I must fight the course ..."

- 'Macbeth' 5.7.1-2

(The difference between Macbeth and the LibDems at the moment though being that the latter have tied themselves to the stake; otherwise the logic is the same.)

The LibDems have nowhere to go, they have to stick with the Coalition. Their calculation - one born of despair, really - is that if the economy comes good by 2015, the planned time of the next General Election, that will justify their entering the Coalition (their narrative of acting in The National Interest), and they will benefit electorally from it.

At the moment their support has at least halved from what it was at the last General Election, from 26% then to in the range 11-13% now.

I think their calculation is wrong. If the economy does come right, or at least improve, by 2015, then the Tories will benefit and win outright. If it does not, Labour will win outright.

I make this prediction barring unforeseen political earthquakes (which is of course a complete get-out clause for me !)

I also present this with a caveat about my record as a political forecaster. I didn't foresee the Coalition. What I was expecting & predicting would happen at the last Election was as follows: I thought that the Tories would get more votes than anyone else, but not enough for an outright majority (I got that right at least). What I expected to happen next though was that they would form a minority Government which would last 6 months, be unable to enact its Budget, and fall on a no-confidence vote in the Autumn. In the meantime, Gordon Brown would have resigned and David Miliband would have become Labour leader. There would be another General Election in November, after which the LibDems would go into coalition with Labour.

So that shows how much my predictions are to be relied on. It should be noted that what I anticipated would happen was also what I wanted to happen.

One final thought, prompted by watching the LibDem Conference and thinking about their future: Politics is a blood sport.